Political Fallout from Division within Barbados' Democratic Labour Party: Implications for Future Electoral Prospects

Since 2018, Barbadians continue to witness the political fallout emerging from a divided Democratic Labour Party. Although political observers and insiders were well aware of the discord, few expected what seems to be the cannibalisation of the 69-year-old party. This continued internal fracturing is a result of the party’s inability to consolidate. Needless to say, a divided DLP has tremendous implications for its electoral future. As one of the two major political parties, the expectation is that the DLP should at least be a formidable opposition capable of forming a government, yet as it stands, it fails in this expectation.

Regarding forming government, based on the DLP’s historical performances, the party may not capture government until 2037 or three electoral cycles away. This is the case since after the 2022 general election, the DLP requires a 23-point swing to receive a sufficient percentage of the national vote to form government. Based on historical electoral analysis, this 23-point swing is a massive task for the DLP. Such is the case as the party’s two best performances; 12 points in 1986 and 10 points in 2008, when combined falls slightly short of the 23-point swing needed to win.

Therefore, the political task at hand for the DLP is clear, the party needs to grow its support nationally. Yet, the DLP’s ability to do this is compromised by division. Worse yet, and more fundamentally, the major problem the DLP confronts is that a major fraction of the party is arguably the antithesis of what is needed for growth, and this is reflected in the party’s weak election performances.

Since independence, there have been 13 national elections. With the exception of 1994 due to the splintering of the vote by the NDP, there were only three instances where a major political party fell under 40 per cent of the national vote. These include 1999 (33 per cent, DLP), 2018 (22 per cent, DLP) and 2022 (27 per cent, DLP). Based on its weakest performances, it appears that the active average DLP’s base is 27 per cent of the national electorate.

During more competitive election cycles, both the DLP and the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) have a baseline of 40 per cent of the national vote and compete for the remaining 20 per cent to form government. However, since 2018, the DLP has been unable to meet this 40 per cent baseline for several reasons.

Among these reasons is the inability of the DLP to capture or create a coalition of the winning. This is the case as the electoral landscape in Barbados continues to shift, and changes in political strategy are vital if political parties wish to do well. There have been socio-economic shifts since the 2000s such as a growth of a middle class, cultural shifts with the rise of identity politics, technological shifts and shifting demographics at the national and constituency levels. These changes are partially behind the BLP’s success as it has tapped into the coalition of the winning more effectively than the DLP.

This is evidenced by the fact that since the 2003 election, the BLP gained an average of 59 per cent of the national vote compared with 39 per cent for the DLP.