Barbados Faces Demographic Crisis with Declining Birth Rates and Ageing Population

Barbados is confronting a deepening demographic crisis marked by falling birth rates, an ageing population and looming labour shortages.

Senior officials gave that warning yesterday as Government opened a two-day workshop aimed at developing an implementation plan for the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040.

Speaking during the opening ceremony of the Capacity Building Workshop for the Development of an Implementation Plan for the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040 at the Lloyd Erskine Sandiford Centre, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development, Jennifer Hunte, revealed that Barbados has recorded a steady decline in birth and fertility rates for more than six decades.

“The main findings of this 2021 report indicate Barbados has had a consistent decrease in birth and fertility rates since 1960. The fertility rate has been below replacement rate since 1980. Most CARICOM countries are facing similar declines in birth and fertility rates,” Hunte said.

She explained that findings from the Population Situational Analysis Report painted a troubling picture for the island’s long-term economic and social sustainability.

“Barbados has one of the lowest population growth rates at 24 per cent in CARICOM between 1960 and 2018. In 2018, Barbados had the highest population density of the CARICOM member states. Migration via the CARICOM Single Market and Economy has not significantly increased the population of working age,” she said.

Hunte warned that the country’s ageing population was expected to place severe pressure on health care systems, social services and the labour force over the coming decades.

“Over the next 30 years, the dependency ratio will grow to nearly two dependents per person of working age with a higher presence of elderly dependents by 2050. Care of the elderly currently accounts for just under 20 per cent of total health expenditure and is expected to nearly double in demand for financing,” she noted.

Hunte added that the report projected “an eventual decline in those of working age and rate of labour force participation, workforce shortages as retirees outnumber new entrants to the workforce, decline in savings rates as older persons draw down on their assets to support themselves, decline in productivity and innovation and increased burden of care not only for family members, but also for the state through social security and social protection programmes.”

She said projections previously suggested Barbados’ population would peak at approximately 290 000 people between 2029 and 2030 before declining, but the 2021 Population and Housing Census showed contraction had already begun with an estimated 269 090 people.