Barbados Meteorological Services Warns of Possible Drought in January 2024

The Barbados Meterological Services (BMS) is warning a drought could be possible next month and a drought warning is likely by March.

In its November Monthly Climate Outlook Newsletter it stated that model projections and regional outlooks have shown a decrease in projected rainfall accumulations. Unlike what occurred in the wet season, the Strong El Nino will be the dominant factor, influencing rainfall, and below-average rainfall accumulations are expected until at least February 2024.

“Members of the public should continue to employ water conservation practices regardless of drought alert levels. After consultation with the Barbados Water Authority, and with consideration of the low rainfall expected through February we ask the public to be aware that [the] drought is possible by January 2024 and a Drought Warning is likely from March.”

Last month though was a very wet one for the island as it was affected by troughs, convergence and tropical waves.

The end of November also signalled the end of the Atlantic Hurricane season and Barbados’ wet season. Rainfall accumulations across the island peaked at 390.4mm at Sturges, St Thomas and at the BMS station, Charnocks, Christ Church, rainfall once again exceeded the climatological average. The station recorded 283.6mm of rainfall exceeding the climatological average of 172.6mm by 111mm.

A trough system which affected the island from November 3 to 7 resulted in consecutive wet days. Over that time, sections of the island received up to 179.8mm. Other significant rainfall events included November 11-12 when a maximum of 112mm of rainfall was recorded at Mount Pleasant, St Philip as convergence affected the island. This intense shower activity resulted in the issuance of a flash flood warning during that time and by November 13, another convergent pattern was responsible for almost two inches of rainfall across the island.

Just a few days later on November 16 a tropical wave affected the island. Rainfall accumulations reached a maximum of 33.6 mm near Mount Pleasant St Philip with similar totals across the southern and central sections of the island. Towards the end of the month, another trough was responsible for near 1.5 inches across St George and St Philip.

As minimum temperatures across the island ranged between 20.4°C to 24.6°C, that meant a slight reduction in temperatures across the island compared to October, with the average minimum temperature at the BMS being 0.9°C higher than the climatological average of 24.5°C. Maximum temperatures continued to peak above 29°C, ranging from 29.4°C to 34.1°C with the highest temperature being recorded in St Michael and over 27 stations recording above 33°C. The average maximum temperature at the BMS in Charnocks was 30.6°C, which was 0.3°C higher than the climatological average with the maximum reaching 32.2°C and the minimum reaching 23.0°C. (PR/NS)